Tump Will Win - Impeachment News slashed media coverage of the economy last month which produced 266,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent, its lowest record in 50 years. The impact of these numbers and what they say about the president's control of the White House is the subject of this column.
Economics-based modeling already has experts like Yale professor Ray Fair, political scientist Alan Abramowitz, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, calling the 2020 election for Trump. Zandi describes his predictions of other "ifs" that could change the equation such as a recession, Trump's declining popularity, or a major Democratic vote.
Tump Will Win
No one knows how the charges will play out politically, but Democrats are trying to move forward with Speaker Pelosi announcing at the same time the articles of impeachment announced that she had struck a deal with the White House to pass the United States-Mexico Agreement (USMCA), Trump's trade agreement. Which indicates the victory of the Democrats. Don't let accusations stop them from doing the people's work.
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"There is a way for Mr. Trump to win an election that goes like this," says Jim Kessler of Third Way, a moderate Democratic group. "I don't like Trump with his rhetoric and behavior, but Democrats have gone too far to the left. This is his way." Medicare for All and the Green New Deal should be flashing red lights for Democrats, Kessler says.
The way to counter Trump's impact on the economy is to focus more on jobs. The economy isn't as strong as you think, Kessler says. Growing takes place mostly on the coast and in a few large cities. Between 2012 and 2016, half of US states lost jobs. Between 2000 and 2016, Queens had more freelance jobs than Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin combined—and that would have been without Amazon.
When Amazon Queens left, people were excited. "The next week, when GM left Lordstown, Ohio, people cried," Kessler told The Daily Beast. "The economy is doing well in some areas, and it's hard on others. There's still a struggle. The Democrats can win if they can convince voters that they may be as good or better off economically than they were under Trump. But if they think the Democrat is A threat to the economy as a whole and to local jobs, they're holding their noses and voting for Trump."
For another perspective, I reached out to Ellen Kamark, a senior fellow in the Governance Studies Program at the Brookings Institution. “I am not losing hope,” he said, though he acknowledges the need to lift the spirits of those suffering from what he calls “PTSD among Democrats” who are traumatized by what happened in 2016 “and fear it could happen again.”
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The economy changes, but it's unpredictable, and some changes, job approvals, are just as important as the economy, "and Trump doesn't have the discipline to get out of his way," Kamark says.
His job approval is in his mid-40s, and if he had listened to his advisors in 2018 and talked about a growing economy rather than increased immigration and a problem at the border, he would have held up the Democrats' blue wave, he says.
There is not a single state won by Hillary Clinton that the Democrats will lose, and the key states she lost - Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - will return to the fold with a majority of blacks. The decline in black communities in Milwaukee and Detroit was greater than the number of votes lost, Kamark says, "which means all you have to do is increase the black vote."
Democrats took the black vote for granted in 2016, and that won't happen next year, he says. "Democrats do a lot of stupid things, but they don't do the same things in two elections." He hopes to see a strong campaign to turn out black voters in 2020.
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Trump is unique among presidents in that he has never tried to broaden his base. Sticking to his base the way he does would make sense, Kamark says, if he wins 53 percent of the vote. But he was elected with 46.1 percent, and his base is too small to warrant re-election.
Kamark's advice to Democrats is to get past their health concerns. “The problem with that passion is, in America, if you have a good job, you have good health. Democrats should spend more time talking about good jobs.”
American University history professor Alan Lichtman has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections, including Trump's upset victory in 2016. "I don't call it (the 2020 election) right now," he told The Daily Beast. In 68 and 2000. And in 2016.
Lichtman's 13 Keys examines a range of factors from internal party struggles and social unrest to external gains and losses, the love of debate and his opponent. "Accountability is a major change, but it's only one, though it could affect others depending on how it happens," he told The Daily Beast.
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Lichtman points to another predictable side of history. The next elections after the removal of the president defeated the ruling party. The Democrats lost the 1868 election after impeaching Democrat Andrew Johnson. Republicans lost the White House in 1976 after Richard Nixon resigned. George W. Bush won in 2000 after ousting Bill Clinton, paving the way for Bush to run to regain the honor and respect of the Oval Office.
"There are only three examples," says Lichtman, "and it's not good for the party that controls the White House." US Attorney Alan Dershowitz said Mr. Donald Trump would be the front-runner to win the presidency if the US elections go to the courts - which shows that the courts in the country have too much power.
The presidential election is now expected to go downhill as some states battle it out fiercely to see who wins between Mr. Trump and Joe Biden.
Dershowitz, a legal expert who has represented a number of high-profile and controversial figures including Jeffrey Epstein and OJ Simpson, believes Biden is the likely winner in the Electoral College, but Trump could come out on top if the election ends up in court. .
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Both are seeking the 270 votes needed for a majority in the Electoral College. Mr. Biden has been well ahead in the polls, but they are showing closer than expected. Mr. Trump has won the Florida, Ohio and Texas fields.
“Well, I think it is possible for Biden to win votes, electoral votes are required, but if you go to court, Mr. Trump should be the person who is wanted in the courts because he appointed most of the judges in our three-tier system,” Dershowitz said.
Trump made baseless allegations Monday night about election fraud. They wanted the Supreme Court to stop voting even though the Supreme Court does not feel it is a problem and hears cases from lower courts.
Dershowitz taught law at Harvard University and was the youngest law professor in the university's history. / Brooks Craft LLC / Corbis / VCG
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Legal experts said the election results can be problematic in state courts with several issues including whether states can include late ballots sent in on Election Day.
"It says we are an incredibly divided country, and judges probably have too much power in a democracy," he said.
“This is, after all, a government administration for the elite and does not concern the people. This is good and bad, but this is America.”
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